Ecco il CONTO
che le maggiori economie mondiali dovranno cercare di pagare nel 2012...
Naturalmente intendo "pagare a debito"....
perchè stiamo parlando del Rinnovo dei Titoli di Stato in scadenza.
Ed il problema non riguarda solo la solita Vecchia&Scarrupata Europa...
Major Economies Everywhere Face Debt Rollover Troubles In 2012di Mike "Mish" ShedlockWith everyone watching debt rollovers in Europe, let's instead take a look at the total global debt rollover and debt issuance problem. Bloomberg reports World’s Biggest Economies Face $7.6T DebtInsomma...Governments of the world’s leading economies have more than $7.6 trillion of debt maturing this year, with most facing a rise in borrowing costs.
Led by Japan’s $3 trillion and the U.S.’s $2.8 trillion, the amount coming due for the Group of Seven nations and Brazil, Russia, India and China is up from $7.4 trillion at this time last year,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.The amount needing to be refinanced rises to more than $8 trillion when interest payments are included.
Coming after a year in which Standard & Poor’s cut the U.S.’s rating to AA+ from AAA and put 15 European nations on notice for possible downgrades, the competition to find buyers is heating up.2012 Debt Rollovers and Interest Payments
Country2012 Bond, Bill Redemptions ($)Coupon Payments
Japan 3000 billion 117 billion
U.S. 2783 billion 212 billion
Italy 428 billion 72 billion
France 367 billion 54 billion
Germany 285 billion 45 billion
Canada 221 billion 14 billion
Brazil 169 billion 31 billion
U.K. 165 billion 67 billion
China 121 billion 41 billion
India 57 billion 39 billion
Russia 13 billion 9 billion
Japan's Problem
Remarkably, rolling over US debt is unlikely to be a problem. The same cannot be said for Japan.
Because of demographics, pension plans will be net sellers of Japanese bonds.
Unless balance of trade or tax revenues increase enough in 2012 Japan will not be able to roll this debt over at 1%.
A rise to 3% would consume nearly all of Japanese revenues.
Europe's Problem
The ECB elected to kick the can down the road with a 3-year long-term refinance operation (LTRO).
...For example, please consider Spanish banks use ECB cash to cover maturing debt-sources....
...Also consider Italy banks almost halfway to 2012 funding needs......
.....For now, massive Fed dollar swaps coupled with the ECB's first ever 3-year LTRO have temporarily calmed European debt markets, how long that lasts remains to be seen.....
sono ormai tre anni che c'è un intasamento colossale nel cercare di piazzare la propria cartaccia debitoria...
visto e considerato che una Crisi di Eccesso da Debito si è cercato di tamponarla con Ancora Più Debito, scaricando però il barile dal debito privato (banche etc) a quello pubblico...
Come sempre ci sarà qualcuno che, per una ragione o per l'altra, riuscirà a spintonare ed a posizionarsi meglio nella "coda"...
Altri invece, nella ressa, rischieranno di venir calpestati e rischieranno di non riuscir a piazzare la loro cartaccia sui mercati...con tutte le conseguenze del caso: bailout, interventi Banche Centrali, haircut, spremute di cittadini etc
Ve lo anticipai già secoli fa in questo BLOG (mentre tutti parlavano di Ripresa e Borse in recupero dagli abissi d'inizio 2009...)
e nelle mie presentazioni ai BlogEconomy Day.