La bussola dell'ECRI punta sempre più verso W...(Double-dip)

La bussola dell'ECRI punta sempre più verso W...(Double-dip)
Come spesso capita in numerose occasioni,
fui IO il primo in Italia ad evidenziare ed a monitorare la significativa tendenza al ribasso dell'Indice Settimanale ECRI (ormai tutti dovreste sapere cos'è...altrimenti andate QUI).
Non che io abbia l'esclusiva su questi dati ACCESSIBILI A TUTTI....ma è una questione di naso e di tempismo, di saper FOCALIZZARE in anticipo gli argomenti che poi diventeranno i punti chiave.
Come spesso capita, adesso tutti parlano dell'ECRI Index...ma a babbo (quasi)morto e senza nemmeno degnarsi di citare il Sottoscritto: cose che capitano nel variopinto mondo dell'informazione Web...
Come spesso capita, adesso tutti ne parlano superficialmente mentre io ho studiato per un mese il funzionamento degli indici ECRI.
Vabbè...è cosa risaputa che questo BLOG faccia tendenza e che in molti vi trovino "regolare ispirazione"...
Naturalmente anche io seguo svariate fonti ma almeno mi degno di dire grazie, di fare i complimenti, di inserire regolarmente link e citazioni, di partecipare al "sostegno attivo" di coloro che ritengo più utili e competenti.
Vedi nel mio BLOG
26 giugno L'indice ECRI continua a PEGGIORARE
21 giugno Sequenza di un TRAMONTO
14 giugno VideoGame
2 giugno Indicatori Economici & Oroscopi di Borsa
1 giugno Entro qualche mese gli USA potrebbero tornare in RECESSIONE?
26 maggio Lo vedete come VI prendono per il culo?
Vabbè...
Secondo l'ultimo aggiornamento, l'ECRI Weekly Index è ulteriormente peggiorato, in modo coerente con il sensibile peggioramento di TUTTI gli indicatori macro del globo....
Siamo passati da un -6,9% ad un -7,7%.
Okkio: è sempre più vicina la soglia di emergenza indicata da Rosenberg ovvero -10% = ritorno in Recessione Double-dip garantito.
Invece il RALLENTAMENTO USA nel secondo semestre 2010 è già cosa CERTA (almeno in base alle previsioni dell'ECRI).
From ECRI 2 Luglio 2010
“A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell slightly in the latest week, while its annualized growth rate continued to decline, indicating the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 122.2 in the week ended June 25 from 122.9 the week before.
The index’s annualized growth rate fell to minus 7.7 percent from minus 6.9 percent the prior week. That was its lowest level since May 22, 2009 when it stood at minus 8.7 percent.”

ECRI ECRI GROWTH SLOWS TO 7.7%, INFLATION AT 7 MONTH LOW

L'ECRI, tra le altre cose, compila anche l'USFIG ovvero un indice che rileva il livello mensile d'inflazione/deflazione.
Eebbene, secondo gli ultimi aggiornamenti, la ECRI-bussola sta puntando verso "deflazione".
The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 97.4 in June from a revised 99.7 in May, which was originally reported at 98.9.
“Underlying inflation pressures are easing further, although deflation dangers are not yet back on the table....."
Su un contesto USA sempre più anemico, anche dopo le pesanti TRASFUSIONI del Governo e della FED, Robert Reich (ex-ministro del lavoro di Clinton) ci va giù pesante:
Slouching Towards a Double-Dip or a Lousy Recovery at Best Stiamo ciondolando tra una Double-Dip ed una scadente Ripresa (se va bene) The economy is still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession and all the booster rockets for getting us beyond it are failing. The odds of a double-dip are increasing. In June the nation added fewer jobs than necessary merely to keep up with population growth (private hiring rose by 83,000 after adding only 33,000 jobs in May). The typical workweek declined.
Average earnings dropped. Home sales are down. Retail sales are down. Factory orders in May suffered their biggest tumble since March of last year. So what are we doing about it? Less than nothing. The states are running an anti-stimulus program (raising taxes, cutting services, laying off teachers, firefighters, police and other employees) that's now bigger than the federal stimulus program. That federal stimulus is 75 percent gone anyway. And the House and Senate refuse to pass another one. (The Senate left Washington for the July 4th weekend without even extending unemployment benefits for millions of jobless Americans now running out.) The second booster rocket - the Fed's rock-bottom short-term interest rates - are having almost no effect.
Come vi avevo anticipato, negli USA ormai sono in molti ad invocare ad alta voce una seconda dose di Obama Viagra-Stimulus-plan....
Come riportato dal solito e mitico Zerohedge,
addirittura Goldman Sachs
(da-sempre-iper-bullish....naturalmente solo dopo aver fatto paccate di soldi scommettendo al ribasso sulla Grande Crisi con qualche "aiutino illegale" come da accuse SEC...)
la vede "grigia" a proposito della crescita del PIL americano nel secondo semestre 2010.
Leggetevi con attenzione l'analisi di Jan Hatzius: saranno anche Goldman-Sachs ma non sono per nulla scemi.
Le loro informazioni ed analisi sono sempre molto interessanti ed allo stesso tempo sono sempre da prendere con le molle....perchè spesso "subdolamente contrarian" (stavolta però non mi sembra il caso).
Oggi come mia abitudie non vi ho tradotto&distillato i passi salienti (evidenziati in rosso): è Domenica, fa un gran caldo ed la verve vacanziera prevale....
Goldman Sachs: "The Second Half Slowdown Has Begun"

.....In a report by Jan Hatzius, the Goldman chief economist warns that "the second half slowdown has begun." Hatzius says: "This is consistent with our long-standing forecast of materially slower growth of just 1½% (annualized) in the second half of 2010." ....."there is some downside risk to our forecast of a gradual reacceleration in 2011 (to about 3% on a Q4/Q4 basis)."....

From Hatzius:

The economic data have weakened noticeably over the past few weeks. This is consistent with our longstanding forecast of materially slower growth of just 1½% (annualized) in the second half of 2010.
This forecast is based on a very simple idea, namely that final demand growth has remained at just 1½% since the middle of 2009.
There is little reason to expect a significant acceleration, and the inventory cycle is ending. ......
Manufacturing Starts to Slow… One implication of our story as illustrated in Exhibit 1 is that the slowdown should be concentrated in the goods-producing sector, which previously enjoyed a disproportionate boost from the inventory cycle.
This implies a significant decline in measures of factory growth such as the ISM manufacturing index.
Historical experience would point to a drop to around 50 by early 2011.1
The drop in the index from 59.7 in May to 56.2 in June - much of which was due to a sharp decline in the new orders index from 65.7 to 58.5 - is the first significant step on this path.

The June employment report also points to a meaningful factory slowdown. While manufacturing payrolls logged another (small) gain, the manufacturing workweek fell by ½ hour, as shown in Exhibit 2. This is a very big drop by historical standards -in the 4th percentile of month-to-month changes using data that go back to 1936. This may be a sign that the manufacturing sector may be losing steam even more quickly than suggested by the June ISM report. …and the Labor Market Softened in June Even beyond manufacturing, the June employment report was weak. This was most obvious in the household survey, where the drop in the unemployment rate from 9.7% to 9.5% was entirely due to a big decline in the labor force. A more accurate gauge is the decline in the employment/population ratio from 58.8% in April to 58.7% in May and then to 58.5% in June, shown in Exhibit 3. (We note the April number in order to illustrate that the weakness cannot just be explained by Census-related ups and downs?after all, the level of Census employment was higher in June than in April.)

But the establishment survey was also soft, despite a near-consensus increase of 83,000 in private sector employment. This number not only falls short of the pace ultimately needed to stabilize the unemployment rate, but it probably overstates the true increase in private labor demand because it probably benefited from the switch of Census workers whose contract has ended into similar private-sector work such as leisure and hospitality or temporary help services. This illustrates that the labor market is still far from escape-velocity-gains in employment that feed into an income growth pace sufficient to overcome the headwinds from the withdrawal of the temporary inventory and fiscal boosts.

And here is the part that comes straight out of the fundamentalist Keynesian textbook:

The Risk of Fiscal Restraint
For the most part, we view the recent data as signaling that the economy is indeed slowing significantly as we enter the second half of the year, in line with our forecast.
While there are risks of a sharper slowdown, the distribution of these risks still seems broadly balanced.
In other words, a weaker outcome is clearly possible, but there is also some chance that the recent weakness in the numbers reflects partly noise and the slowdown ends up somewhat less serious than our forecast.
However, the distribution of risks around our forecast of a gradual reacceleration in 2011 to a Q4/Q4 pace of around 3% is tilted to the downside.
The main reason for this is not so much the data, but the shift in the fiscal policy risks.
As shown in Exhibit 4, we already estimate the impact of fiscal policy on the growth rate of final demand (and GDP) to turn gradually negative in 2011.
But even these forecasts are based on the expectation that Congress will ultimately extend all of the Bush tax cuts except for the top two brackets, provide more funds for extended unemployment insurance, and make additional transfers to state governments. While we still believe that most of these provisions should ultimately pass, the risk that some of them - most likely the aid to state government - will fail to materialize have clearly increased in recent months.
For now, we are not making any changes to our growth forecasts.
However, we will evaluate developments both in Congress and in the US economic data closely over the next few weeks to see whether any adjustments are warranted.