Vi riporto qui di seguito gli aggiornamenti che ho inserito nel Post di Lunedì 30 Aprile: Una tonnellata di Dati Macro Americani si stanno indebolendoIn questo modo vi sarà più agevole "apprezzare la MAGIA" dell'ISM Manifatturiero Americano
che ieri ha fatto toccare alle Borse USA i nuovi massimi dal lontano Dicembre 2007....
Aggiornamento di martedì 1 Maggio ore 17
La Barzelletta del Giorno....
Come potete vedere più avanti in questo post, negli USA quasi tutti gli Indici Manifatturieri Regionali hanno deluso e rallentato di brutto...
Ma oggi ci ha pensato l'ISM a fare la magia...facendo uscire un dato nazionale manifatturiero che ha sbriciolato al RIALZO le attese...........
US ISM Manufacturing (Apr) M/M 54.8 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 53.4), highest since June 2011Evidentemente l'ISM Manifatturiero Nazionale NON si basa sulla somma dei dati manifatturieri regionali....Chissà allora su cosa si basa...;-)
Che sia magia o che sia illusionismo....le Borse USA stanno festeggiando alla grande, anche se il manifatturiero americano ormai pesa solo per l'11,9% del PIL made in USA (anno 2009)....
vedi nel mio Blog: F.I.RE Economy
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La maggior parte dei Dati Macro made in USA degli ultimi due mesi
sono usciti peggiori delle attese
Già potrebbe bastare la delusione generalizzata che hanno riservato gli indicatori manifatturieri americani...
ovvero proprio quelli che avevano illuminato questa Ripresa Americana post-Grande-Crisi,
una ripresa piena di contraddizioni, sbilanciata, pompata, abnorme, jobless, incompleta e fuori dagli schemi del passato...
MANUFACTURING INDICES TURN SHARPLY LOWER….
Here’s a round-up of some of the recent manufacturing surveys in the USA.
On the whole they’ve been much weaker than expected:
Interestingly, the consensus is calling for a flat ISM report despite broad weakness in recent regional reports.
- Dallas Fed Business Activity Index: -3.4, down from 10.8 last month.
- Kansas City Manufacturing Index: 3, down from 9 last month.
- Richmond Fed Index: 14, up from 7 last month.
- NY Empire State Index: 6.56, down from 20.21 last month.
- Philly Fed Survey: 8.5, down from 12.5 last month.
- Chicago PMI: 56.2, down from 62.2 last month (minimi da 29 mesi)
Last month’s ISM report came in at 53.4 and the consensus is calling for 53 tomorrow. If the regional surveys are telling us anything it’s likely that there’s downside risk in tomorrow’s report.
And if so, we’ll likely get more chatter about QE3 in June….
Aggiornamento di mercoledì 2 Maggio ore 8.45
Aggiungiamo un po' di contesto Manifatturiero alla magia dell'ISM Manifatturiero Americano che ieri ha stupito tutti... L'UK ha deluso di brutto:
UK's PMI fell to 50.5 from 51.9 a month ago. This missed economists' forecast calling for 51.5. New orders came in particularly weakLa Corea ha avuto un crolletto nelle esportazioni
South Korea's exports fell 4.7 percent versus the 1.0 percent increase economists were expectingL'Eurozona, come ben sappiamo, è ormai in negativo/recessione (i neo-keynesiani dicono che sia per colpa dell'austerity...). Vedi il pessimo dato manifatturiero di Aprile (50 è la parità tra contrazione ed espansione)
Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 46.0 (47.7 in March) - 34-month lowEd anche l'inarrestabile Cina è da parecchio tempo che sta arrancando nel suo PMI manifatturiero: siamo al 6° mese consecutivo di contrazione....
Cina, Hsbc: nuova contrazione Pmi manifattura aprileInfine ecco il crolletto di Taiwan....fresco fresco....
L'indagine congiunturale Pmi sul manifatturiero cinese a cura di Hsbc mostra una nuova contrazione su base mensile, la sesta consecutiva. In Aprile l'indice si posiziona a 49,3 dai 48,3 di Marzo. (Nota: secondo il suo ciclo produttivo annuale normalmente la Cina fa il suo top manifatturiero proprio ad aprile-maggio...)
Taiwan Manufacturing PMI Dips To 51.2, Manufacturers See Growth Decelerate Taiwan's HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 in April, down from 54.1 in March.Perfino la tanta decantata Turchia che sarebbe in Boom...nel suo PMI manifatturiero è tornata in positivo ma senza sfavillare e dopo due mesi di contrazione...
Mediamente la Turchia è sempre stata tra 54 e 58, tanto per avere un riferimento...
Turkey's PMI Climbs To 52.3, The First Increase In Three MonthsInsomma...potete meglio comprendere e contestualizzare come il numero tirato fuori ieri dal cilindro dell'ISM Americano sia veramente MAGICO....;-) ------------------------- Qui di seguito (in inglese) potete trovare un tentativo di spiegazione ALLO STRANO CASO dell'ISM Manifatturiero made in USA (fonte americana...).
“After remaining in contraction territory for two months, business conditions in Turkey improved in April....
May 1, 2012, 12:39 p.m. EDT
U.S. ignoring, or benefiting, from Europe misery
Commentary: Euro-zone troubles aren’t hitting U.S. manufacturers
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — After disappointing results from regional manufacturing indexes, markets were set up for a decline in the national Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge, which is one of the most well-regarded economic indicators. So of course, the ISM gauge accelerated in April, and key subindexes for new orders and employment improved as well. Stocks rallied in reaction. Read more on ISM report. So what happened? Well, the regional gauges, while disappointing, weren’t actually that bad. For instance, the Philadelphia Fed reading of 8.5 on a -100 to +100 scale really isn’t all that different from the ISM’s 54.8% reading on a 1 to 100 scale.
Anti-austerity demos spread across Europe
Countries across Europe held anti-austerity May Day demonstrations and heightened pressure on governments across the euro-zone to scale back unpopular cutbacks. Dow Jones's Jenny Paris reports. Photo: Getty Images Perhaps more of a relief is that the manufacturing sector, one of the bright spots of the U.S. economy, is still hanging in there. The ISM data is consistent with annualized growth of 3.5% to 4% in the second quarter, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Clearly, the broader U.S. economy isn’t going to be expanding at that rate between April and June, but it’s not likely to fall back into recession if the manufacturing sector is that strong. One point of interest is that the export index jumped in April. Could it be that U.S. manufacturers are taking orders from European rivals that are struggling to get financing from deleveraging European banks? Perhaps. A a similar index from the euro zone reached a 34-month low in April. An alternative theory is that American firms simply are better positioned in growth markets like China, not to mention the still-growing U.S. market, and less exposed to European misery. Read more on Chinese data. The two differing theories have important implications for markets. If the U.S. is simply taking market share away from Europe, then overall global demand isn’t really accelerating, which means that commodities shouldn’t really react to the news. If the story, however, is that the world economy will still chug along despite the European mess, then that will have a different impact on asset prices.
In any case, the ISM data proved a welcome relief from some of the more dour reports that have been published of late. The more important question however is just how strong the payrolls report will be on Friday.
THE EUROZONE DECOUPLING….
One of the more controversial ideas I wrote about last year was the decoupling of Europe and the USA.
My thinking was that austerity was setting Europe apart from the USA who has not been imposing such austerity and that this divergence was leading to a decoupling of the economies.
The more recent PMI reports show this trend becoming more pronounced.
Our friends over at Sober Look have more details:
The equity market went vertical this morning on the back of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI coming in stronger than expected (54.8 vs 53 expected).
…What’s striking about this rise in the manufacturing PMI is the divergence between the US and the Eurozone manufacturing trends (chart below).
This does not mean the US has decoupled from the Eurozone’s crisis (because manufacturing is still a relatively small component of the US output).
But it does provide further support to the forecasts that the US will manage to avoid another recession, at least in 2012.
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